A 2.6% swing, as Patrick mentions, is a step in the right direction. We have to keep in mind that this was not a mid-term by-election triggered due to some unfortunate circumstance. It was a by-election triggered by an outgoing councillor (in her home ward) who became our MP.As such, Labour's data, in terms of pledges and voting intentions, was fresh and, indeed, accurate on the back of the GE result. All Labour needed to do was to get out and knock up half the pledges that it had from the GE and it would win (never mind canvassing or the fact that, in Guy, Labour chose a good local personable candidate). Another point to bear is the relatively high percentage of postal votes (in comparison to the low overall turnout). From the count, my colleagues tell me that Labour soaked in about 85%-90% of the postal votes. Take those away and the ballot contest on the day becomes slightly more competitive or dignified from a Conservative position (but Labour would have still won). Of course, I'm not pleading foul-play or anything of that sort but this remains a point of curious statistical and demographic interest to me. Having said that, and given that the 2018 local elections will be held 2 years before the General Election this time around (i.e. in the middle of cuts and more tough decisions), I find great difficulty in seeing any Conservative breakthrough outside Chiswick and Osterley. I just cannot see the next breakthrough.At constituency level, however, upcoming boundary reform could take Hounslow Heath (Labour's strongest ward) out of the constituency altogether and that would make it very difficult for Labour to hold onto the parliamentary constituency. Put simply, if we take Hounslow Heath out of the GE result, Ruth Cadbury would still be a councillor today rather than an MP.Well, those are my thoughts...
Fadi Farhat ● 3859d