"I don't think any of the independents have a hope of winning this seat but I think the Lib Dems could"BernadetteOn what information do you base your judgement?I keep hearing how the election is a two-horse race (from the Conservatives) or a three-horse race (from the Liberal Democrats), but the "evidence" for this in each case amounts to little more than supposition and wishful-thinking.As Gareth has rightly said, there is no great enthusiasm for the Conservatives and there doesn't seem any sound reason to believe that a relatively unknown candidate from outside the borough is going to buck the national trend and overthrow what is a very substantial New Labour majority. Even if Ann Keen has been a quite appalling MP, there is no logical reason to believe that traditional Labour voters are going to automatically switch to the Conservatives, of all people. You yourself are living proof of that.On the other hand I don't honestly feel that Gareth's analysis of the situation, which he has given in great detail elsewhere, is particularly scientific. Most of the factors which he identifies were also present, if not quite to the same extent, in 2001, and although Gareth did well to increase his party's actual and percentage vote it was still some considerable way behind that of the two larger parties. Add to that the fact that the Liberal Democrats have no political power base in the constituency (no councillors, having failed to even come second in a single ward in 2002), and there seems no basis at all upon which to presume that the Lib Dems are going to suddenly find themselves being propelled to victory in Brentford & Isleworth, however good the candidate or his campaign.In the Hounslow South by-election in 2002 the Conservatives confidently declared that it was a straight fight between themselves and Labour, and that the ICG candidacy was an irrelevance. We beat the Conservatives into third place.Similarly in Syon in the main council elections in 2002 the Liberal Democrats declared it to be a "two-horse race", with themselves riding one of them and Labour the other. We beat the Lib Dems quite decisively. I honestly don't think that the Lib Dems deliberately set out to deceive anybody about their chances, it is simply that the ICG factor is one which none of the political parties locally seem able to get their heads around, and so they prefer to forget that we exist.Yes, I'm aware this is a national election and that in such a contest the ICG is an unknown quantity (even to us!) but with three high-profile elected councillors and 1,500 members in the constituency it is ludicrous for any of the parties to pretend that we are not there. The opinion polls may or may not provide an accurate reflection of the relative strengths of the parties nationally, but in this particular constituency the ICG's involvement will provide a different perspective. Whether they like it or not, we will be there in the final shake-up.
Phil Andrews ● 7598d