In response to my enquiry to Heathrow and then the CAA on the probability of planes crashing during their take off or landing approaches, ie onto populated parts of London, they directed me to the following report:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/437269/operational-efficiency-ground-risk-analysis.pdfQuotes from this document:‘The Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) were asked by the Airports Commission to assess the likelihood of an aircraft crash in the vicinity of Heathrow and Gatwick airports’‘An aircraft crash is defined as an uncontrolled landing or mid-air break-up leading to serious damage to the aircraft and/or at least one fatality’What the report says:The 2013 Heathrow fatal crash rate was predicted as once every 14 years for planes crashing within 10 km of the airport. By 2050, with runway 3 in use, the crash rate is predicted to have fallen to once every 16 years even though there will be a 60% increase in flights. This is because of increasing aircraft safety. To put these numbers in context, 2013 to 2050 is 37 years, so they’re expecting at least two crashes within 10 km of the airport in this time. This strikes me as unacceptable. The report also notes that expansion of Gatwick instead of Heathrow would have a lower fatal crash rate. Presumably this is because there are more fields with cows in them around Gatwick whereas Heathrow is surrounded by suburbs full of people.
Lorne Gifford ● 2853d