Alan: This is the message that Paul posted on this Forum site just two months ago. Topic: "Peak Oil" is the best defence against Heathrow expansion plans Forum HomePosted by: Paul DavisDate/Time: 16/06/05 09:58:00I like many will be dismayed by recent reports in the local press about the publishing of expansion and night-flight plans for Heathrow Airport.The "economic benefit" argument remains the lynchpin in the case for expansion but this is folly perpetuated by flat-earth economists. The coming phenomenon of Peak Oil puts in doubt all future economic predictions, especially those that rely so much on hydrocarbon energy like air travel does.**THE THEORY**It is widely accepted that oil is a finite resource; there are basic laws which describe the depletion of any finite resource: * Production starts at zero; * Production then rises to a peak which can never be surpassed; * Once the peak has been passed, production declines until the resource is depleted.These simple rules were first described in the 1950s by Dr. M. King Hubbert, and apply to any relevant system, including the depletion of the world’s petroleum resources.It is important to note that the point of maximum production (known as the Hubbert Peak) tends to coincide with the midpoint of depletion of the resource under consideration. In the case of oil, this means that when we reach the Hubbert Peak, we will have used half of all the recoverable oil that ever existed on our planet.The Hubbert Peak is forecasted to arrive in the next few years.Economies expand on the basis of confidence in future growth. Economies can only grow as long as there is sufficient energy to power them. The price rises we are seeing in oil are forecasted to be only the beginning of a bull oil market as we begin to empty the barrel. Every economic activity that uses oil will see an increase in its costs.Continually rising oil prices will only drive up air-fares and unless average salaries match this climb demand will most likely level-out or shrink and not increase to the extent some will have us believe.There are increasing amounts of sites and articles on the Internet about Peak Oil, but if you're in the confidence game it makes no sense to bring it into the conversation now. But it's only a matter of time.www.fromthewilderness.com
Jim Lawes ● 7194d