Forum Topic

Bath drowning danger

Let's look at the risk of dying from the Chinese virus:We have data for hospital deaths for a large (17m) sample:OpenSAFELY Studyand cause of death statistics from ONS:Mortality statistics 2010Calculate COVID-19 annualised death rate per 100,000:Period of study 1 Feb - 25 Apr = 84 days18-60 cohort = 11,935,253 say 12mHospital deaths with confirmed COVID-19 = 489Annualised per 100000(365/84) * (100000 / 12,000,000) * 489 = 17.7Deaths from Drowning in bathtub 33Adding in non hospital deaths, COVID-19 deaths for 18-60 year olds are in the same ballpark as bathtub drowning.

Andy Riley ● 1909d8 Comments

BBC health correspondent Nick Triggle writes about risk:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52758024

Andy Riley ● 1906d

Neil,Thanks for the link, although as I don't subscribe to the Telegraph I can only see the first page.So I'll just make a few general comments:1) Comparisons across countries are fraught with difficulty due to varying data collection standards, periodicity in data collection, political interference etc.2) The EuroMomo site has graphs which show trends within each country and therefore some level of comparison between countries is possible at least with regard to trends if not rates and/or numbers.  https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/The last set of graphs on the page shows Z-scores for each country which represent deviation from the average (if there are any statisticians in the house please amplify or correct).  Both Sweden and the UK show a decline from a peak at about week 15.(Of course, if one searches long enough it seems a graph can be found to support any position)3) We are still within this pandemic and, although understanding of the virus is improving there is still much to be learnt.  A proper comparison of differing strategies will not be possible for some time.  But we have to make policy decisions now.  My view is that the relentless focusing on daily deaths and micro trends sustains a level of fear and anxiety and that we have lost sight of the bigger picture of widespread economic stress with its attendant health risks.  So my reason for doing the bathtub sums was to act as some corrective to the perception of risk.  I've been running it past friends and neighbours and the usual reaction is disbelief - tellingly some value individual stories from the MSM over the statistics (which in this case I believe are sound - unless I've c*cked up the sums). It is interesting and worrying how alternative voices are being suppressed:https://unherd.com/thepost/professor-karol-sikora-fear-is-more-dangerous-than-the-virus/So, only time will tell who gets it right - even that will be debatable as countries and cultures are different so what works in one may not be transferable.  Our government has a major task in resetting people's understanding of the relative risks involved.  Politicians hate admitting to U-turns so I'm not holding my breath.I have a suspicion it will peter out in a similar way to James Thurber's story "The Day The Dam Broke"

Andy Riley ● 1908d

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/20/sweden-becomes-country-highest-coronavirus-death-rate-per-capita/

Neil Chippendale ● 1908d

Sweden:Population: 10,000,000Deaths: 3,831 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/)UK: 66,000,000Population:Deaths: 35,704 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/)

Alex Shpinkov ● 1909d

Neil,If you don't give the source for your information it is worthless.

Andy Riley ● 1909d

Thought this might interest you. Sweden has now overtaken the UK, Italy and Belgium to have the highest coronavirus per capita death rate in the world, throwing its decision to avoid a strict lockdown into further doubt.

Neil Chippendale ● 1909d

Remember - stay 2 metres away from your bath.Save the NHS!

Andy Riley ● 1909d

Linking failed. Here they are:https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20092999v1.full.pdfhttps://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/oct/28/mortality-statistics-causes-death-england-wales-2010

Andy Riley ● 1909d