Forum Topic

EU to ban new petrol/car sales from 2035.

We will ban sales from 2030. Once again looks like we are being mugged. Hope we are all able to afford EV'S. I am not sure if the USA are banning new petrol and diesel cars sales. Does anybody know?

Nicholas Beard ● 1146d21 Comments

There are a few Totota Mirai minicabs that ply the trade around West London. I can only assume that they are a testbed as they are so rare a sight. The real issue is refuelling in that there are currently 14 hydrogen stations in the UK for fuel cell powered electrically propelled vehicles. Five of these are located within the M25, with others in the Southeast and Midlands. There are only two hydrogen refuelling points in the whole of Wales, only one in the north of England, just two in Scotland and none in Northern Ireland.

N V Brooks ● 1128d

Some very interesting albeit rather technical stuff emerging on how Boeing are developing super lightweight extended 777 aircraft and how the sums don't add up. They comparison over weight to fuel use and efficiency achievable is using a mid range Tesla.For it to be anywhere near economical it has to do a very high annual mileage to be cost effective as well as energy efficient.  Most electric vehicles are not really being used in this way and are never going to cover their additional purchase costs.All the pointers are for Hydrogen road vehicles, but most certainly not for aviation.

Raymond Havelock ● 1129d

Lithium batteries can be very dangerous if not cared for or faulty. Only this week there was a fire on the 12th floor of a blosk in Shepherd's Bush (thankfully. no injuries) when the lithium battery in an e-bike caught fire.Tesla fire article: https://www.theregister.com/2022/06/23/tesla_model_s_explodes_after/

N V Brooks ● 1129d

I missed the Tesla incident. The car was parked! This reminds me of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner fires, again the planes were parked. Imagine a car catching fire in a integral garage of a house. There are many houses with integral garages, also flats with underground parking.

Nicholas Beard ● 1130d

There is a YouTube video doing the rounds at the moment from last week of a Tesla which has been parked for over a month after being an accident effectively spontaneously combusting and bursting into flames.It took over 2000 litres of foam and water to put out the resultant chemical fire. These things simply are not safe enough yet.

N V Brooks ● 1130d

Raymond you may be interested to see a u tube called  Paris electric bus fire. Lots of issues with batteries.

Nicholas Beard ● 1130d

Our streets used to be full of very long estate cars in particular Volvo estates.  You see very few of those now.  I believe many families have reduced the number of cars they own and run so have chosen one larger family car instead of one large and one small. 

Philippa Bond ● 1134d

I think that two things have become clear in recent months. With Fuel costs exceeding some peoples earnings yet still having to use a vehicle to get to work or be able to work.And those who are solvent enough to still use oversized cars in urban district that are not used for work means.There is a street in South Ealing packed out with huge cars that are wider than the parking bay markings.  Some are electric but have cables trying the pavements.But most are status symbols.Unless it's a genuine working vehicle, if it does not fit the space it should have a huge levy on the permit charge.  A small car is perfect for a city runabout but with one reservation. They should be as versatile as possible and that fault lies with the manufacturers and their marketing. Still pushing lifestyle and image and gadgets.

Raymond Havelock ● 1138d

It depends on how and where you use a car ...  and why!Also of the alternatives available.  We are all different.You are concentrating on those few long journeys that you do that concern you and not the many you can do without worrying.  Do you remember when no garages were open on Sundays or after 6pm?  Living in the country we always used to worry about that and after living in London all that planning around where the petrol stations are, watching the dial etc were forgotten only to be sharply reminded about them on our return.  We relied on lifts and would cadge and hitch them from train and bus stations.  Often there were others on the London train that you knew and that was before mobile phones so arrangements were hard to make last minute.  Public transport in London was far easier than in the country too so we used that most of the time.No it is not perfect and it will change and it is changing.  Grants come and go!

Philippa Bond ● 1139d

EVs are not a long term solution for many.I drive to West Wales four  times a year. It's 257 miles door to door and my hybrid manages it with ease. However, an equivalent 'full EV' was over £30,000 more and would be right on it's rasnge limit.I don't rush and the journey takes around five hours with a lot of it on the M4 or A40 depending on how we feel.  The though of having to recharge part way is not pleasant but then neither is the total absence of fast charging infrastructure when we get there. Nearest two 22Kw chargers are almost thirty miles from where we stay. "Oh goody, let's have a morning out to go and charge the car" - NO!

N V Brooks ● 1140d

TfL had Hydrogen Buses running on the South Bank /Covent Garden RV1 route over a dozen years ago using Mercedes Citaros a a base design. The Bendy bus without the bendy bit on the back.The ran very well but required a higher skill technician / Engineering team to support which was not so affordable and better garaging facilities which TfL have been selling off in favour of outdoor less permanent facilities which are largely unsuitable conditions for higher technology or the people who maintain it.

Raymond Havelock ● 1141d

I was watching a programme about hydrogen taxis in Paris. Quick to refuel. The drivers could not find one fault except the cost of the vehicle. In Kent they are using surplus electricity from wind farms to produce hydrogen I heard.

Nicholas Beard ● 1141d

Ever since I was a kid I always wowed at the possibility of the electric car.Back then all the Milk floats were electric and even the council used electric hand carts for minor refuse. Just the City of London remain users of Electric utility vehicles.Now we have them and in the main they are excellent to drive, but still hamstrung with shortcomings.It simply has not been thought through and like so many things in this country completely lacks infrastructure to support properly.My own view is a car nowadays ought to be as versatile vehicle as possible, capable of long and short journeys and ample load space to make it an all round road vehicle as useful as possible.It's very hard to find a decent vehicle of any mode that fits that bill, making a high spec van/bus more of an option but not really economic. The modern 'global' cars are too large (at least for UK roads and many european cities) partly to create a safer vehicle, and yet some have almost  less load space than a Mk1 Mini and none match the capacity of older estates and saloons.. Many SUVs are a joke for the tiny amount of internal space rendering them nothing more than a large car comfortable for occupants but hopeless for taking cargo with them.EV range is a problem. One of my colleagues has a Nissan Leaf. He's lost count of how many times he's been towed of the M2 and M20 when the fully charged vehicle runs out of power after 45 miles, in rain and cold weather thats even less. The wipers, demister and lights etc. all drain it very quickly. He spends hours stuck at motorway services charging or waiting for a charger. It places burdens on other colleagues waiting for him.But worst of all is being a passenger with him. He is sweating buckets and stressed each time the range display drops below the distance to the next junction. Stuck in a car thats doing 40 in rain on the M20 is scary and enough to convince me that far more needs to be developed with EVs.Little City runabouts and light vans are probably the best options but working vehicles that do 100- 175 miles a day are not. Reading to London and back including dwell time and actual locations at each end is near 100 miles. Even in a petrol vehicle the usual delays and diversions can push the fuel consumption over the 100 mile mark. Costly and annoying but at least not going to leave me needing a tow or a search to recharge or the stress of it.  London to Northampton and back is over 100 miles R/T and EVs can't really do that except in perfect conditions with no ancillaries on.A long way to go, I'm sure it's a achievable but until the hype and hysteria gets levelled by pragmatism and proper solutions it's not really going to get there.The same for Hydrogen, it's nearly there, a far more versatile means of fuel and can use both the existing gas network and fuel station network and takes seconds to refuel.  Not enough RD funds going into that but it is far more practical if the safety issues can be overcome. That is within technology and engineerings means but getting it right and standardised is the goal.

Raymond Havelock ● 1142d

I remember the fridge mountain because we could not recycle them and had to send them to Germany. EV batteries could follow the same path only worse. I did not know about the EV's in the scrap yards. Of course running gear suffers the same problems with running gear as do ordinary cars. There seems to be a myth that EV's just run on and on. Thank you Raymond for pointing out these TRUTHS.

Nicholas Beard ● 1142d

Range anxiety seems to be much worse than actual range which continues to increase.  How many people drive more than 200 miles at a time or in one day?  Not everyone who drives!  Many people seem to check the all the charging stations along the route and don't wait until they get to the last one.  There is a lot of work needed to make sure all the charging stations are well maintained.

Philippa Bond ● 1142d

Modern cars, easily looked after very rarely suffer drive train faults unless abused.It usually steering, suspension and braking components that fail and that's the same for any other propulsion mode. And all modern vehicles suffer from electronic failures. EVs are very prone to this and very, very expensive to remedy once out of warranty. ( As are liquid fuelled vehicles )But then there's the batteries. Highly toxic and environmentally damaging from extraction, processing and end life disposal. Not to mention the huge carbon footprint involved in mining and processing which makes no headlines at all but uses fossil fuels ( mainly goal and gas) to process.A current battery would need to last 18 years to equalise its manufacture footprint.  Only when technology can reach that and exceed that to at least 25 years will it be a genuine environmental alternative. Electric and Hybrid Buses are now appearing in scrapyards because the sheer cost of replacing batteries exceeds the economic viability of the vehicle.  Some are being retrofitted with Euro 5 diesel engines to see them out to their expected service life.

Raymond Havelock ● 1142d

We know the sales cut off is 2030 however in the EU it will be 2035. So you have a choice for five years more there. Yes electric cars have less moving parts and require less maintenance. However the range is short and they are very expensive, and people cannot afford them as easily as petrol cars.

Nicholas Beard ● 1143d

Aaaand... here come the Luddites and naysayers. First, the 2030 cut-off is only sales, it won't take existing vehicles off the road.Second, you'll still be able to buy a new fossil-fuelled vehicle until 2035 - as long as it is hybrid. Third, EVs have the potential to last longer and require less maintenance, because they have fewer moving parts and they don't rely on 10,000 small explosions every minute. There's more, but I'm out of energy now - thanks, Covid. )-:

Bryan Betts ● 1144d

Was at a site meeting last month with some gas engineers and the discussion on heat pumps was on the list of issues.Factoring these into new builds is relatively easy.  But.  So far, the efficient life of heat pumps is short, so removal and reinstallation will also have to be factored in. Problem is construction parameters are so small that the space allowance and future proofing is currently completely unknown.Retrofitting most UK housing stock though, is another issue.  Hugely costly with many properties simply without the space or access to install safely or effectively, plus much of the pipework may have to be completely replaced.That's huge costs to householders and a huge use in raw materials. Nullifying any environmental gain.The sums don't add up with the short life of the units and the running installation costs. It may be more efficient but the costs per household will be as high if not higher than existing means.The general consensus was that the wrong solutions are being pedalled to suit timetables and short term policies.  The existing Gas distribution network could be converted to Hydrogen in a similar way to Coal Gas being converted to Natural Gas.It would be a mammoth operation but the engineers believe that safety apparatus and conversions would be a better option in the very long term. And the infrastructure is in place. However the stampede to sell of Gas Works and infrastructure sites for development  may have damaged feasibility as safety infrastructure and storage had been significantly reduced with natural gas.The problem being the fragmented energy industry and the need for a state run overseer ( which was the case with North Sea Gas)The debacle with Smart meters and demise of single high uniform standards shows that what could be achieved then is unlikely now. Similarly, with the Mayor of London's approved schemes for solar panels. Go through the application and far too many households found they do not qualify do not qualify. Many because of the positions of the roof and this the limited efficiency. But not factored in is roof maintenance which could mean deinstallation and reinstallation costs.Again, the relatively short efficiency life of the units means the outlay return is way too long and could be wiped out if a roof needs attention.  The whole scheme, like the vehicle scrappage scheme,and insulation schemes are so flawed, its really a scam.  A lot of Taxpayers money has been pocketed and nothing said.If authorities cannot get this right and genuinely beneficial and effective then it is highly unlikely anyone else will.  They simply dismiss the problem issues and don't have the brains and tenacity to challenge and solve the issues.It is a challenge but PR and political rhetoric over pragmatism wins and keeps on winning over and stuffing up solutions.  Lying and misleading is not just restricted to our Governments, it's become the norm in almost everything. To the point that find the truth about anything is a real effort.

Raymond Havelock ● 1144d

I agree with all of your points regarding EV's. The government wants them here by 2030 so that they can say we are a leading player in the fight against global warming. There seems to be a parallel with heat pumps. In Austria I understand all new houses from next year will have to have a heat pump which is fair enough. However here they are talking about a date after which gas boilers will not be sold (like petrol cars). Retro fitting older houses with heat pumps, well I expect you know more than I do. This begs the question as to where the average householder will find the money for a EV and heat pump?

Nicholas Beard ● 1145d

EVs are still crude, hyper expensive and not as green as is being marketed.Amazing how a few flashing lights and a sexy display can paper over the deficiencies.The marketeers have recognised what mugs the public are and how easily they can be led when a crisis is created.The 'scrappage schemes' were a complete scam - rather like the daft reduction in fuel tax which is so easily circumvented by the industry.Govt should have used an emergency economy blanket price cap nationally or a fixed set price nationally.  But that might mean no partying on the forecourts.Be far better to do grants and subsidies to convert vehicles, particularly vans and working vehicles. Battery life and the materials used are also finite and toxic and costly to the point that replacement exceeds the depreciation value of a vehicle.Car manufacture has advanced to the point that a car can last a very long time if looked after. But the new technology does not last. So the environmental impact of a car, van or bus that is rendered scrap way before it ought to be leaves a huge carbon footprint and a real waste of time effort and energy in it's manufacture.Which is why the deeply flawed ULEZ overlooks that a 20 year old very low use private car, through it's longevity is far less polluting than a newer vehicle doing a higher mileage but only lasting 12 years before being unviable against battery replacement.There is no practicable solution for EVs unless you have a parking space for each vehicle per household. Already, just a few in a standard terraced street causes problems with trailing cables and squabbles between owners all wanting to charge at the same time. Even worse as so many EVs seem to be huge.If the increase in EVs demand reaches a significant point but way short of parity with petrol or diesel, there will be significant shortfalls in electricity generating ability.Electric Buses are using far more electricity than expected and the cost is going to lead to rationalisation of frequencies or subbing by hybrids or diesel buses.The brushed over issue is that the energy required to charge and EV be it a car van or Bus exceeds the amount of conventional fuel per mile.Electricity has to come from somewhere and sustainable means are unable to meet transportation requirements. It will take decades to simply meet current industrial and domestic requirements and with a burgeoning population and a failing service based economy, to sustain any sort of mass employment and economy will require big investment and a return to quality and mid quality manufacturing.Rationing of Electricity if EVs become widespread is a not very far off possibility particularly if a cold winter hits.The problem is simply being shoved elsewhere, and not actually properly solved and pushing EVs as the answer is a short term folly.I for one cannot understand why Buses ( Hybrid and Electric) do not utilise the vast roof space with durable Solar panels that can be easily transferred from vehicle to vehicle so as to minimise freshly generated power.  The cost then is reduced as each bus at the end of it's very short service life has it's panels transferred to it's replacement.If we could manufacture buses that lasted 50 years in daily use with a regenerative design, then surely it's not beyond the realm to do the same with modern technology with an inbuilt care plan to exceed 25 years?There should also be a UK moratorium on selling off Fuel stations to developers. The dedicated use for retail/fuel should not be removed.If the national network of fuel stations is lost then other solutions like Hydrogen ( which is the best green and sustainable solution or other possibilities still being developed) then many of these options will be rendered unfeasible and unaffordable.  Just the same as happened with selling off disused railway lines and building on the trackbeds rendering any form of revival too costly and near impossible without huge issues.Or is that now impossible?

Raymond Havelock ● 1145d