Mathematics and your vote
Maths equation tells you why to votefrom politics unspunThursday, 20 Apr 2006 Electoral Commission comes up with the maths behind voting intentionA mathematical formula taking into account sense of duty and political interest has been devised to work out why people are likely to vote in next month's local elections. The Electoral Commission has come up with an equation based on personal contact by a party, a belief in what they can do and a perception of how important voting is, to explain scientifically why people will turn out on May 4th. Barely one third of the electorate bother to vote in local council elections – about half the number who participate in general elections – and the new formula is an attempt by the watchdog to get people thinking about why, or not, they are taking part. "There are many factors which affect why people do or do not vote, including demographics, attitudes and experiences," said Cliff Arnold, the psychologist at Cardiff university who devised the formula. "This equation explores how much of that decision to vote is down to personal experience and motivations. Think of it as nature and nurture. Our motivation to vote is both about predisposition to vote nature and how stimulated we are by the election environment. "Be it a general or local election, our personal opinions and experiences are as key to our motivation to vote as the election campaign environment." Council seats in 176 local authorities are up for election next month, with voters getting to decide who should set their council tax, organise their rubbish collection and run their local schools and leisure centres. Angela Salt, communication director at the Electoral Commission, urged people to use their vote to make sure they held their local councils to account. "Our councils have responsibility for many of the services we use everyday, from rubbish collection and sports facilities to road safety, but the bottom line is that if you don't vote on May 4th you lose the opportunity to have your say," she said. Dr Arnold's equation is as follows: (C + I + P + (V x D) = N) / S = X. To make sense of it, use the key below. C = Personal contact by a party I = A belief that any of the parties can handle important issues P = Parental interest in politics V = Perception that my vote will count D = Sense of voting as a duty N = Perception of the nature of the national competition between parties S = Perception of how safe the local seat is X = motivation to vote
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