Forum Topic

Kills germs - and viruses - fast!

Having the TV on in the background, I have just heard that D*tt*l kills germs - and viruses - dead/fast, where previously the advertisements did not mention viruses unless I am mistaken.That's interesting. Curious the World Health Organisation, Centre for Disease Control, NHS etc haven't latched onto this in their fight against swine flu.Being more serious, given we have now two cases locally, how worried are people about swine flu (I nearly typed wine flu, which really would worry me)? What chances do we feel there are of there being thousands and thousands of deaths in the UK, in London, in West London, in our streets? Or do we all have faith that modern medicine will once again come galloping in and sort this one out?

Dan Filson ● 6186d5 Comments

Indeed.And if hospitalisations increase 10-fold (as Australia may be predicting) does that get us into the nasty situations of Level 3 in the planning documents :http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publicationsandstatistics/Publications/PublicationsPolicyAndGuidance/DH_087733<<>>And then there is stage 4......

Tim Henderson ● 6185d

Interesting debate.Statistics and percentages are fine until the fatality is your granny, wife, brother, daughter…Same goes for road “accidents”.

Chris Calvi-Freeman ● 6186d

I wouldn't panic too much yet.Looking at reports from Australia (in its winter flu season):Swine flu's case-to-fatality rate globally has been less than one per cent, and this compared to the 61 per cent of people who caught and then died from bird flu A(H5N1)."The virus, despite being both novel and infectious does not seem particularly lethal,'' says Dr Senanayake, an infectious diseases physician at Canberra Hospital."This last fact has probably surprised many."Before this outbreak, many experts would have assumed that an influenza virus that crosses the species barrier and is capable of sustained human to human transmission would undoubtedly be highly lethal.''Dr Senanayake says that despite the mild effects of the virus it could still claim scores of lives amongst those vulnerable to the seasonal flu - generally those with underlying chronic illness.On a conservative estimate, it would infect 20 per cent of the Australian population, with up to five per cent of the infected then likely to require hospital care."Around 80,000 to 200,000 people in Australia may ultimately be hospitalised for swine influenza ... with around 8000 deaths,'' Dr Senanayake says."This compared to annual figures of about 18,000 hospitalisations and 3000 deaths directly or indirectly attributable to seasonal influenza.'' http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25650887-12377,00.htmlThis one doesn't appear to have got the characteristics of 1918 flu ... yet.I also came across "old people may be immune to swine flu"http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2009/06/old-people-may-be-immune-to-swine-flu

Tim Henderson ● 6186d

OK 60,000 out of 7 million may not sound much - a Chelsea football crowd maybe (just wishing!) - even at that level the distress and economic consequences would be immense.Consider the spanish flu epidemic of 1918+ . More fatalities than WW1.Any airborne pandemic if it really gets going is a major nightmare. It's not like the blitz, "we can weather it". If it got going in London to the 50-100 deaths level, preventive measures would begin to cut in, like sending workers home, relocating work. Huge economic disruption. My own office has ocntingecny planning in operation. There are no signs that the powers that be have a total confidence they can manage this one.The possibility of mutation is frightening as it could mutate faster than medical remedies could cope.

Dan Filson ● 6186d

How many is thousands and thousands ?So far I think the chances of tens of thousands of deaths in London due to swine flu is low.Say London has a population of 7 million.Say 10% get swine flu = 700,000Say 1% of those die = 7,000What is the "usual" level of mortality in London ?7 million people with life expectancy of 70 years - on average 100,000 die a year.What is curious to me is the severity of the attack has been said to pick on young adults.I also suspect severe under-reporting of the disease. I know of lots of people who have suffered " a bad cold" in the last three weeks. Were these very mild symptoms from swine flu ? The anecdote from Pulse is interesting :"Meanwhile, Dr Ellen Wright, a GP in Greenwich, south London, said she and her husband, also a GP, had been told to carry on working after their son contracted swine flu last month.‘We were told as long as you were asymptomatic you could carry on working, even if you were seeing patients,’ she said. ‘My husband developed mild symptoms but they were not enough to merit swabbing, according to the HPA algorithm.’"Of course, if the strain mutates or incorporates the nasty features of bird-flu H5N1, then the epidemic may be something else entirely.......

Tim Henderson ● 6186d