Forum Topic

London Euro Election Results.

The winners of the London Euro election:http://londoneuroelections.org.uk/JL

Jim Linwood ● 4092d28 Comments

The slavery bit is quite a realistic proposition with current parties. Dilute communities, allow immigration for cheap labour for land owners (and people looking for a decent builder), forget Dixon of Dock Green style policing and go high tech, low result; ban all drugs unless the pharmo giants make them.Oh, and let MonSanto patent all the seeds in the world and produce high volume low quality rubbish to feed us on.Scary. Add Nigel the archangel and we are surely doomed to a death of falling endlessly into bottomless pits lined with snake turds.

Ian Silver ● 4090d

Oh if Kevin says it, it must be true. What next -  Nigel Farage is the Anti Christ and his supporters are little devilish fiends who are looking forward to carrying out ritual sacrifices in Morrisons carb park and the reintroduction of slavery!

Robert Ayres ● 4090d

In deference to the Lib Dems, we had an opportunity to change the electoral system a few years ago and voted overwhelmingly to keep the first past the post system.The proportional representation electoral system used in the EU Parliament elections did result in the election of a variety of MEP's in each multi-seat constituency but most of them are UKIP, Labour or Conservative. And it only allows us to vote for parties- and not individual candidates. Therefore MEP's are seen as representing the parties that selected them and put them at the top of their party list rather than their constituents. How many of us know the names of all the London MEP's ?When it comes down to it, UKIP has only two policies:1. Stop immigration and2. Take Britain out of the EU (which is necessary in order to stop immigration from the EU).These policies appeal to quite a few Labour voters - particularly in the North where UKIP did well - as well as to some Conservative voters and people who normally don't vote at all.I think that quite a few people lent their votes to UKIP last Thursday as a protest against immigration and the EU and to influence Labour and the Conservatives into taking a stronger line on this two issues.However General Elections are fought on a wider variety of issues- the economy, employment, unemployment, NHS, interest rates, housing, inflation, education, taxation, social welfare, policing, development aid, law and order, the record of the current Government, the effectiveness of the Opposition etc. UKIP seems to have very little to say on these issues.It will be interesting to see if UKIP will come up with a comprehensive manifesto covering all these issues between now and the General Election.

David Giles ● 4091d

Our domestic politics would be greatly improved by proportional representation. Our system is divisive and quite out of date.There are quite a few minor parties whose views should be better incorporated. Lib Dems, the Green party and UKIP all come to mind.

Ian Silver ● 4091d

"The UKIP 'manifesto' such as it was has been buried"This is the oddest thing - since UKIP have no policies on the areas people actually consider important you find that people project the policies they want onto the party in order to justify voting for them.  There's no evidence they will actually do any of this, and there's not much evidence the manifesto in 2015 will look anything like the manifesto in 2010.  You get more consistency of approach and stronger messaging from Nick Clegg.

Thomas Barry ● 4091d

These things are well known and Farage was shifty to say the least when he was questioned on the Sunday Politics show the other week. The UKIP 'manifesto' such as it was has been buried and now they will have to spell out just what they will do for the general election. This lot truly are our version of the Tea Party - remember Sarah Palin? frightening isn't it?

Vanessa Smith ● 4091d

Yes, well that's the Mirror for you.And what will the Sun say? Eeeeek.Shame the News of the World is gone they would have come up with some complete tosh.

Ian Silver ● 4091d

Kevin Maguire in today's Mirror has painted a picture of what a Farage UKIP government could look like, pretty it ain't."Patients are besieging hospitals after privatising the NHS was an expensive disaster. Imposing a cost to visit a GP proves costly when people don't - and minor complaints develop into life-threatening illnesses. Workers are furious after UKIP let bosses scrap paid holidays. And new mums are in tears that they must be back at work the week after giving birth. U.S. President Barack Obama skipping us on a Europe trip was bad. But the leaders of Brazil, and India? Their preferring Brussels to us is hard to take. ..........Crime is up after handguns were re-introduced.......Imposing dress codes in restaurants sparked a backlash after a brickie was told: "You can't come in here you're an oik. And taxi drivers are no longer laughing after a tie and shirt were made compulsory." And on it goes concluding "I've read the last UKIP election manifesto. Welcome to UKIPland a nastier country."

Vanessa Smith ● 4091d

So you took an exit poll, did some analysis and have concluded that UKIP's success is due to far right support.Well I think the following has a lot to do with UKIP's  success. These, by the way, are facts not analytical theorem.  2004: Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair says a referendum will be held on ratification of the European Constitution Treaty but does not name a date for the poll2005: Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats all promise a referendum on whether to ratify the EU Constitution in their general election manifestos. France and the Netherlands reject the proposal in referendums2006: The cross-party Better Off Out Group, seeking the UK's withdrawal from the EU, is launched2007: The European Commission proposes a replacement treaty, which comes to be known as the Lisbon Treaty. The Labour government says it is a different document, amending not overwriting existing treaties, and a referendum is not needed. Conservative leader David Cameron gives a "cast-iron guarantee" to hold a referendum on any treaty emerging from the Lisbon process if he becomes PM2008: Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg calls for an "in-out" referendum on UK membership of the EU. MPs reject a Conservative call for a referendum on whether the Lisbon Treaty should be ratified by 63 votes. 15 Labour MPs and 14 Lib Dems rebel against their parties2008: The UK ratifies the Lisbon Treaty. The High Court rejects calls for a judicial review of the decision by Tory MP Bill Cash and businessman Stuart Wheeler. They claim ratification without a referendum was illegal2009: David Cameron admits he will not be able to fulfil his pledge to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty because it has been ratified by all EU member states. But he says, if elected, no future substantial transfer of powers will take place without the approval of the British people

Robert Ayres ● 4091d

"Where do you get these facts from"I found the London EP voting figures, entered them into a big spreadsheet of vote numbers and vote shares from 2009 and 2014 (plus overall shares going back to 1999) and did some analysis originally aimed at trying to determine whether London's UKIP voters were coming from disaffected Conservative or Labour voters or both, since that's the only thing that matters - if they're coming from the Conservatives Ed Miliband can start measuring for curtains, from both and he's got a big problem.  Believe me, a lot of party wonks and political observers will be doing the same thing soon, so I want my own source of data in case they start spouting BS.The first thing that jumped out of the borough vote share data was that big UKIP rises were often accompanied by big BNP falls, so I started analysing the BNP+UKIP vote, later expanding it to the English Democrats, although their vote share is a lot smaller and a lot less localised so doesn't really affect the maths much.For instance, Barking and Dagenham had one of the highest BNP vote shares in 2009, 19.4% with UKIP on 14.8%.  In 2014 the BNP got 2.5% and UKIP got 27.9%, the net gain being -3.8%, so what on the face of it looks like a brilliant UKIP triumph in a Labour borough probably isn't, they just inherited a big pile of Mr. Angries after the BNP collapsed.Conversely uber-Tory Bromley had the BNP on 5.5% in 2009 with UKIP on 18.9% and last week had the BNP on 0.66% with UKIP on 30.9% for a net gain of 7.1%, which probably is a brilliant UKIP triumph and people in blue rosettes need to ask where those 7.1% came from given that Labour's vote share was the only main party to rise in Bromley.  I bet a lot of them are Tories angry at Cameron and wanting to punch him in the face.As far as I know no one else has bothered doing any analysis like this yet, preferring the 'why the result supports my view' nonsense that comes out in the press and online in response to any election result."So if you want to make sense of UKIP's support look around at the ordinary people who have all woken up to the lies."I'd rather deal in the facts than the usual incoherent UKIP supporter ranting about 'socialists', thanks (you really think UKIP aren't lying?  OK, whatever).  The evidence I've dug up shows that UKIP gained big swings in London in areas with either high BNP votes in 2009 or in areas which traditionally vote in Conservative councils by large margins.  UKIP made insignificant gains in Labour voting areas with the exception of Barking and Dagenham which is creditably explained by the large BNP swing (Labour's vote share was 17.4% more, so UKIP voters didn't come from them).  That looks very like a right wing party with a mixture of right wing and far right voters.  The areas where UKIP did well, on every measure I've thought of so far (feel free to suggest any new ones), are always Havering, Bromley, Bexley and Sutton*, which aren't on anyone's list of areas Labour is going to do well in in the near future or needs to win in 2015's General Election.  Going back to my original thesis,  UKIP seems to be more of a danger to Conservative votes than Labour votes, in London at least.  If your thesis about 'ordinary people' holds up you need to explain why 'ordinary people' who've 'woken up to the lies' don't seem to live in Hackney or Newham or Brent or Lambeth or Ealing or Haringey...).[Hounslow, as you might expect for a Labour borough with a substantial BNP vote in 2009, is a bit below the line, BNP share down 4.3% and UKIP share up 5.6%.  Richmond, a Tory borough with a tiny BNP share in 2009, is above the line, BNP down 2%, UKIP up 6%.  Which one's got more 'ordinary people'?]* Sutton is quite a bizarre case, overwhelmingly Lib Dem council but UKIP came from third in 2009 to beat the Conservatives and Lib Dems in the Euros.  Labour are nowhere in the borough, so again the UKIP votes can't have come from them.  The other interesting one is Hillingdon where UKIP put 10% on its vote share enabling Labour (which put on 12.7%) to pip the Tories in the Euro vote despite a comfortable Conservative hold in the council.  Again, doesn't smell like UKIP taking votes from Labour there.

Thomas Barry ● 4091d

I agree Robert.I too voted for the common market and in the referendum a few years later to see if we wanted to stay as part of it.That was then however and what we have now is a seeming subservience to the European Commission and its woeful ideas about how we should all live.There's nothing far right about UKIP, they are an alternative to the impotent mainstream.

Ian Silver ● 4091d

"I voted for UKIP, I am not a member of the far right."I think that's true of most UKIP voters, but most of UKIP's policies are far right (privatisation of the health service, flat tax, uniforms for cab drivers) OK, Farage says these are no longer their policies but they say very little about what their policies are, other than leave the EU and reduce immigration.Most people in politics - Lab, Tory, LD, ICG - are motivated by a desire to make things better. Of course, some of what they do is misguided but there are very few who are not trying. I'm sure that's true of UKIP politicians too though their record in the European Parliament is pretty dire. It's also interesting that well over half of existing UKIP councillors in London lost their seats despite the UKIP advance. I wonder why? Did you vote last time, Robert, and for which party?

Guy Lambert ● 4091d

Where do you get these facts from ? BNP+ED+UKIP. I voted for UKIP, I am not a member of the far right. I, like millions of others, have had enough of being taken for granted by Politicians and having our views denigrated and treated with contempt.  I was around when we voted to join a common market not a club for Socialists who are hell bent on removing  people's democratic rights to choose their own future. So if you want to make sense of UKIP's support look around at the ordinary people who have all woken up to the lies.

Robert Ayres ● 4091d

"another has been the ability of UKIP to inspire people to vote who didn't vote previously (especially in the Euros)"Again it's possible to overstate this - if you plot the vote share decline for BNP and the vote share rise for UKIP it's roughly on a line of UKIP = BNP + 2%, with Tory boroughs above the line and Labour boroughs below it.  I'm struggling to understand in what way UKIP taking more votes in Tory areas and doing relatively badly in Labour London boroughs isn't good news for Labour.UKIP's top boroughs: - Bromley (7.1% up on the combined BNP+UKIP vote in 2009) - Bexley (5.9%) - Sutton (5.0%)UKIP's bottom boroughs: - Barking and Dagenham (-3.8%) - Hackney (-1.4%) - Newham (-1.0%)

Thomas Barry ● 4091d

I agree UKIP did very well. However my comments were indeed about the Euro elections and it's easy to forget that Lab's vote share also went up - pretty well as much as UKIP's in London, despite UKIP hoovering up (one assumes) most of the collapse in votes for the BNP and the like.One of the factors in the Euro-elections across the UK has been the reunification of the far right: another has been the ability of UKIP to inspire people to vote who didn't vote previously (especially in the Euros)

Guy Lambert ● 4091d

Yes. I do think UKIP has done brilliantly. We can look at it from various angles. One way of looking at it is that the far right have not made much progress and are only commanding 18% of the vote as Thomas pointed out.For me, however, it speaks volumes that UKIP won the European Elections. The European Elections are one of two elections (together with the General Election) where everybody can vote. UKIP has won this election and it is the first time in over 100 years that a party other than the Conservatives or Labour has won an election where everybody can vote. That is a statistic which trumps all others for me because the Con-Lab duopoly has been broken for the first time in over 100 years. If you told me that would happen 10 years ago, I would have laughed it off. The Lib Dems and even the Green Party would have had a better chance at breaking that duopoly.  I do think, however, that UKIP's splitting of the Tory vote is reaching its saturation point and that if UKIP were to attract more voters in the next few years, it will come from  Labour supporters. No formal data to back that up - just a gut-feeling.

Fadi Farhat ● 4091d

Isn't it more the case that the majority of people who vote in the European elections (both in this country and other European countries) are those who are vehemently anti-Europe, and thus feel more compelled to vote than other people who are less 'bothered' ?.I understand turnout was even lower than at the last European elections, which seems to support this notion.

Adam Beamish ● 4091d

This thread was about the European elections and UKIP did surprisingly well. Time will tell.

Ian Silver ● 4091d

Well, actually, they did OK. Very well indeed in London and all the major conurbations, not very well in rural areas and poorly in the Eastern region. Labour also did well in marginals (such as Brentford and Isleworth). This explains why Labour are still at a low price with the bookies, though a hung parliament is now favourite.Which doesn't change my view that Labour need to do a lot more for those who have been marooned jobless or on less than a living wage, because they need the votes but mainly because it's the right thing to do. And if Labour don't do something for this group, the Tories certainly won't and UKIP would be a disaster for them.

Guy Lambert ● 4091d

I have to agree with your reading of the situation. We are in the EU at the moment so it is incumbent on ALL our representatives to do their job looking out for the UK's interests.  It's simply no good going to the European Parliament to whinge about how we shouldn't be there, it's nonsense. I still think that once they start trying to fight in the General Election here people will face a reality check, paying to see your doctor, no maternity leave, no sick pay - just some of their dafter suggestions, we'll be back in the days of the workhouse.

Vanessa Smith ● 4091d

Hahaha, they did very well actually, the results show it.

Ian Silver ● 4091d

"at least it will open up more serious debate about excessive immigration which is on a lot of peoples' minds."Really? London, which obviously has more migration and diversity than any other area of the country, is the least concerned about it.The answer, obviously, is to encourage more immigration into UKIP voting areas.

Thomas Barry ● 4091d

"Didn't UKIP do well?"No, not really - the combined hard right vote (BNP + ED + UKIP) has been 17.2% for the last two elections and was 18% on Thursday, so they've gained a bit, but nothing spectacular - it looks bigger because the BNP and ED shares have gone down a lot, which perhaps goes some way to explaining where UKIP's getting its support from.Labour genuinely did well, though, hoovering up a lot of Lib Dems and also notably getting their own vote out, who one presumes had sat on their hands during the Iraq/Blair/Brown era somewhat.  Greens and Conservatives got 3% more votes each, but the turnout increase meant their vote share fell, also suggesting much of the increase went to Labour - places like Hackney had a startling increase in the turnout and pretty much none of it went to UKIP and the Lib Dems were actually down over 1000.It's not just increased turnout, actually, there are about 4% more eligible voters in London than in 2009 due to population increases.

Thomas Barry ● 4091d

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/26/ukip-founder-alan-sked-party-become-frankensteins-monster

Guy Lambert ● 4091d

For me, there is a wider problem with having a party such as UKIP which is in it to be out of it - i.e. in Europe to be out of it. Yes, UKIP will be effective in expressing its displeasure at the whole system as well as rubbishing and ridiculing the whole system which is a typical (if not entertaining and pertinent) feature of Nigel Farage's speeches in Europe. But will they be best equipped to engage with the system (all be it for the period of time that we are in it)? Now, I am not pro-European by any stretch of the imagination but whilst we are in Europe, there will be matters regarding agriculture, product liability, advertising, food safety/labelling and a million other things which will be on the agenda and which may become Directives over the next four years. A party of UKIP's stance is not, judging from UKIP's political literature on the European Elections, in the best position to get us a good deal whilst we're in the system. What UKIP will do is say that it is rubbish and ridiculous that Brussels can dictate what the size of our bananas should be, for example(or whatever the issue may be), but  will then play no real part in the deeper discussion. Then laws will be passed which could have possibly been renegotiated, prevented or influenced differently had there been a more participative discussion by MEPs on the issues at hand beyond mere ridiculing. That participative debate/discussion is what you generally get with the Conservatives (and Labour to be fair) and I am not sure we will get it with UKIP and its MEPs. Let's wait and see.

Fadi Farhat ● 4091d

I think it could be a good thing - at least it will open up more serious debate about excessive immigration which is on a lot of peoples' minds.Good luck to them, I hope they can be more effective than the previous incumbents.

Ian Silver ● 4092d

God help us!

Vanessa Smith ● 4092d

Didn't UKIP do well?

Ian Silver ● 4092d