Probably not, according to Ealing Friends of the Earth
Ealing Friends of the Earth is calling for the Mayor to go ahead with the West London tram scheme after publishing data which they say shows that very few roads will suffer from increased traffic.
They have renamed campaign group Save Ealing's Streets as 'Save 8 Streets' because they say that is the number of roads in the Ealing area which will see an increase in traffic.
They contradict claims that certain roads will be hard hit by increased traffic after the tram. Roads such as Eaton Rise, Gunnersbury Avenue (Pope's Lane to the A4) and Northfield Avenue could see decreases in traffic of up to 12.5% at peak times if the tram is built according to these figures, and many others show no change. Of those 8 roads anticipating an increase, such as Mattock Lane and Gordon Road, traffic could grow by between 5 and 22%. The information on a road by road basis is detailed in a table below, so you can see how it is anticipated that your road would be affected.
Christine Eborall from Ealing Friends of the Earth said: “Save Ealing’s Streets supporters don’t seem to realise that traffic in Ealing is set to keep on growing. Most streets will see more traffic without the tram than with it. With the tram, there will be money to spend on managing traffic in the affected roads. If the tram is stopped, there will be little or no money to manage traffic, so rat-running and congestion will increase. Is that what people really want?”
Will French of Save Ealing's Streets dismissed the validity of the numbers saying, "Figures quoted by FoE are based upon the results of traffic forecasts that are so unreliable that TfL will not discuss, explain or justify them. TfL has removed the forecasts from its website and they form no part of the documents currently being consulted on. No information has been provided about the assumptions that went into the forecasts but it is clear that they are based on TfL's highly questionable theory that traffic in West London will 'evaporate' once the tram has been built."
SES say that only around 6% of car
journeys are replaced when new tram schemes are built. If this is the
case for the West London Tram it will still mean around 25,000 vehicles
a day trying to find a way along the Uxbridge Road corridor. They also
point out that the study does not cover most roads in the area and say
that the number of adversely affected roads would be considerably larger
than stated by FOE. In addition the TfL numbers show a greater number
of roads affected by an increase in traffic in off-peak periods."
Ealing FoE have based their conclusions on extensive traffic modelling
carried out by Transport for London. The original work was conducted
by the consultants Scott Wilson. The models cover a large area bounded
generally by the A4/M4 (including Heathrow), A40/M40, M25 and Central
London, and Ealing FoE have been through them with a fine-tooth comb,
they say. Christine Eborall urges you not to dismiss the modelling out
of hand - "The traffic modelling maps are available at the roadshow
exhibitions which TfL is putting on as part of the tram consultation...
to go along and see for yourself."
The models shows three scenarios:
1. The present day [2003] usage of the streets by all
types of travellers
2. The 'With Tram' scenario which predicts the situation
in 2011 if the tram is introduced along the Uxbridge Road and the 207
and 607 bus services removed
3. The 'No Tram' scenario which predicts the situation
in 2011 without a tram but with the 207 bus service operated by bendy
buses and at increased frequency [10 buses per hour]
Neither of the 2011 scenarios includes the following: Crossrail, major
developments at White City, Southall Gas Works and Uxbridge Town Centre,
Heathrow Terminal 5, possible extension to the Congestion Charging Zone,
future parking restraints and charges. Neither do they include the impact
of local traffic management of affected streets, except the 20mph zones
which Ealing Council is already planning to put in place. Each scenario
is produced for the peak period [7am - 10 am] and the interpeak period
[10am - 4pm].
Ealing FoE have compared the 2011 With Tram and the 2011 Without Tram
peak period scenarios (for the streets where data is available) for
each of the centres along the Uxbridge Road. They say that without the
tram, traffic along the Uxbridge Road will be unrestrained and is predicted
to increase significantly, to the limits of its physical capacity. The
surrounding residential streets are predicted to be used more as alternative
routes, as drivers seek less congested routes.
© Ealing Friends of the Earth, June 2004
July 29, 2004
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